Lies, Damned Lies, and Statistics
Just the facts Ma'am
Sam Clemens was a smart and amusing writer with a sharp eye looking at society. Many of his observations still ring true today. This quip touches on how for most people statistics are opaque and could easily be used to tell lies with the cachet of "statistically proven".
I've looked at statistics some. It's come up in a few courses. These days I even have software that will produce statistics from masses of data. But statistics is a pretty complex study that requires mastering many techniques and theorems and I've not done that study so I have to trust those who are telling me the statistics.
If the trust isn't there then the statement based on the statistics could be a lie.
And if the statistic counters knowledge that the listener already takes to be true then it probably is a lie.
Science and math have that problem. But so do topics like theology. They all are topics that take years to master and basically they ask outsiders to accept their conclusions.
Then there are things like ChatGPT that can write expert sounding articles with any slant you want that don't actually 'know' anything. Lawyers have been caught using it to prepare court filings that include legal references that never existed.
EO Wilson's idea of consilience can help us when we are faced with statements that we aren't personally qualified to check. His idea was that all of science is interconnected. The various branches don't contradict each other and reinforce each other. For instance, the study of the strength of bones in biology would use knowledge taken from chemistry and physics.
So if you have a lot of experience then you have a way of evaluating statements outside of needing to be an expert. Does the statement fit with what I already know?
As we grow and develop we create what I call a 'structure of understanding'. Even babies have that as shown by the fact that they can be surprised which I take as noticing something that doesn't fit their structure of understanding.
Even now after 74 years I love that feeling of surprise. But also there are lots of ideas, like perpetual motion machines, that I reject out of hand because they conflict with a basic understanding of the conservation of mass and energy.
A structure of understanding is a personal thing but is obviously influenced by family and peers and education. One of the roles of education is to endow each child with a structure of understanding they need to live well in their society.
A child's education needs to be very broad. I was brought up as a Christian and all of that information helps me evaluate statements about Christians even though I'm an atheist now. I'd hope that Christians would learn enough about Darwinian evolution to be able to understand how vaccines work so that they aren't vulnerable to disinformation.
Lies, damned lies, and statistics are used to persuade people to act in various ways. There is nothing in the statement itself that validates its truth. Statements need to be checked against what we already know and the more we know the better
What do you think?
I present regular philosophy discussions in a virtual reality called Second Life.
I set a topic and people come as avatars and sit around a virtual table to discuss it.
Each week I write a short essay to set the topic.
I show a selection of them here.